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Transcription
Bobbi Rebell:
But the crazy thing here is, that Dr. Crosby has done all this research into why people do dumb things when it comes to money. And then, he goes ahead, and by his own admission, falls prey to a big financial decision, largely because of his ego. Dr. Daniel Crosby and his wife are moving with their kids from Alabama to Georgia, and they bought a really big house in a really fancy neighborhood.
Bobbi Rebell:
Not out of their budget, but out of their comfort zone. His insecurity is endearing, and I believe, totally sincere. I hope you enjoy this chat with Dr. Daniel Crosby.
Bobbi Rebell:
Hey, Dr. Daniel Crosby, you're a Financial Grownup. Welcome to the podcast.
Daniel Crosby:
Thank you. Great to be here.
Bobbi Rebell:
And I'm so excited you're here. We were introduced by a mutual friend and a fellow Financial Grownup, Brian Portnoy, who was on talking about his book, Geometry of Wealth, and everyone can check out that episode. We'll leave a link in the show notes.
Bobbi Rebell:
You are, and I'm going to read your own notes that you sent to me. You are a shrink turned money guy. You have a PhD in Clinical Psychology. You are also The New York Times Bestselling Author of three books. Your latest book is called The Behavioral Investor. We're going to talk a lot more about that soon. And it is about the four most common psychological traps that we fall into. What a great teaser, Daniel.
Daniel Crosby:
Yeah, yeah. On book three, I'm getting better at this. I was crummy the first time, but I'm getting there.
Bobbi Rebell:
And you also have a little firm called Nocturn Capital. Cool name. Who came up with the name?
Daniel Crosby:
Well, my wife is a pianist, and she likes Chopin, so she plays a lot of nocturnes. One nod is to her, who I love very dearly. And the second nod is, to things that are nocturnal are most active when things are darkest. So it's sort of a nod to value investing and my dear wife.
Bobbi Rebell:
All right. Let's get to our money story that you brought. It's about a financial mistake and I guess we'll dissect that from a psychological standpoint. It has to do with buying a big house.
Daniel Crosby:
We had a beautiful home. A more modest home, but a very nice home in Alabama that was very inexpensive, of course, as well. Almost immediately, like almost immediately upon moving back to Alabama, I'd started to experience sort of this lack of respect I felt at conferences, but then, also I was just itchy. Like just itchy to go somewhere new.
Daniel Crosby:
So we started to have this conversation and it was couched in reasonable terms, and I think that that's one of the dangerous things about how we can kind of fool ourselves, behaviorally. I couched it in terms of, "It would be nice to be close to a better airport, it would be nice to have access to deeper pockets in a larger population," all of which is true on the margins.
Daniel Crosby:
But when I'm really, really honest with myself, the thing that was driving the conversation was A, my ego, my desire to sort of show people that I had arrived. And B, was this sort of shame. Those were kind of the big primary drivers, but during the time when my wife and I are having the conversation, it wasn't framed in those terms.
Daniel Crosby:
And I think that's one of the dangerous subtle things about human cognition, is we can operate in ways that are based out of fear, or weakness, or greed, or whatever. And we can lie to ourselves a bit to make them seem more palatable to ourselves, and we can really buy our own BS. We listen to the bankers, right.
Daniel Crosby:
We said, "How much loan can we get?" And we saw the number, and we were rightly shocked by how high it was. And we backed off of that considerably, even by about 50%. But still, we never stopped to ask ourselves, and I think many homeowners do this. Many people who are purchasing a home, they ask themselves, "How much house can I afford and not how much house should I afford?"
Bobbi Rebell:
If you feel comfortable, could you tell us the numbers involved, and what that house was worth, and what the new house was worth?
Daniel Crosby:
Yeah, so the old house in Alabama, we still have as a rental property. We've rented it ever since we moved out. It's been great. And then we paid 750 for the house in Atlanta.
Bobbi Rebell:
This is not a question of affordability.
Daniel Crosby:
No.
Bobbi Rebell:
You could afford that, right.
Daniel Crosby:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not at all a question of affordability. See, that's where I think that the nuance comes in. It's not a question of affordability. We got approved and could have afforded much more than that. It's not even a question of, "Is it a nice place?"
Daniel Crosby:
Because it is, but it's just something that, it's not us. It's in a gated neighborhood. So people come through and they go, "Oh, wow. A gate, and a big house." And my wife and I agree, that it just doesn't suit our personalities.
Bobbi Rebell:
So what are you going to do about it, Dr. Crosby?
Daniel Crosby:
Well, this is a point of weekly conversation, because now we have a child, who's in the local school system, and she's on student council, and she's really thriving. And so, I don't know. I mean, we feel kind of stuck and there's so many transaction costs involved with the sale of a home.
Daniel Crosby:
I think if we were to move, we would just move within the area, which is almost exclusively homes a lot like ours if she were to stay in the same school. So candidly, I don't think we'll do anything.
Bobbi Rebell:
Have you ever talked to the neighbors about the general culture of the area, or the perception of the culture of the area?
Daniel Crosby:
You know, I never have. And I think it's one of those taboos, and you worry that you're going to get looked at sideways, but no. I've never talked with the neighbors about it.
Bobbi Rebell:
So what is the takeaway for our listeners?
Daniel Crosby:
The takeaway is, if you're trying to buy happiness, a home is absolutely not the way to go, I think is takeaway number one. There's just so much involved with it and your hassle grows with the size of your home.
Daniel Crosby:
And I think lesson number two, which is perhaps the more important lesson is, be careful of the ways that you can deceive yourself. When you're thinking about your financial life, be sure to get down to the nitty-gritty, the emotional stuff, the pain, the insecurity. That's where I didn't go.
Bobbi Rebell:
All right. We're going to shift gears and get to your everyday money tip.
Daniel Crosby:
What I encourage folks to do with their financial lives, is to try and identify a point of weakness beforehand. To try and say, "If there's a reason that I'm not going to reach my retirement goals, or whatever it is, what would that reason be?" And so I walked through this with a friend of mine, who was over for Thanksgiving. And we were talking about his upcoming retirement.
Daniel Crosby:
And he disclosed to me what percentage of his wealth was in this single company stock, and it was well over 50% of his significant wealth. And I said, I walked him through this idea of a premortem, and said, "Look. If something were to go wrong with your savings and your retirement nest egg, what do you think it would be?"
Daniel Crosby:
And he said, "Well, probably some sort of risk to the business that would cause this stock to decline a great deal." And it's like, "Yeah." Because you can't always meet that head-on. I was aware of this over-concentrated position of his for a long time now.
Daniel Crosby:
But when you try and say, "Hey, man. You got to sell this, you got to tell this, you got to diversify," there's a very human nature, a very human tendency to tell people to, "Get lost," when they sort of command us to do something.
Bobbi Rebell:
Your book, The Behavioral Investor, is your latest bestseller, following I think your big book was The Laws of Wealth. One of the things that love about The Behavioral Investor, is that you make us take a second look at a lot of the assumptions that we have, especially regarding investing.
Daniel Crosby:
So real space behavioral investing has a couple things in common. First of all, it has a reasonable fee. When Morningstar looked at all of the data points that predict investment performance, they found, came to the decidedly unsexy conclusion that the number one predictor of how a fund does is how much it costs. Because, of course, those costs directly erode from your performance.
Daniel Crosby:
So the first check mark is whether it's active, passive, or whatever in-between, right, it needs to be have an appropriate fee. The second thing you want to look at is that it's rules-based. And this is sort of goes into the first. Rules-based portfolios tend to be cheaper than discretionary portfolios because you got to pay some Ivy League genius to run the discretionary portfolio, whereas the rules-based portfolio can just run on algorithms.
Daniel Crosby:
So rule number one, portfolio needs to be adequately priced, sort of cheapishly priced. Second thing is, it needs to be rules-based. And then the third thing is, it needs to automate good behavior. Most of us have the tendency to do just the wrong thing at the wrong time. I mean, that's sort of the simple lesson of The Behavioral Investor.
Bobbi Rebell:
This was interesting. It was on page 193, you talk about intuition, and which jobs have had the best and the worst intuition. So the worst, I'm sorry to say, included psychologists, I believe. Like you.
Daniel Crosby:
Mm-hmm (affirmative).
Bobbi Rebell:
Also stockbrokers.
Daniel Crosby:
Like me.
Bobbi Rebell:
Which is discouraging. Also, college admissions officers, which is really upsetting because we really want to think for all the care and the years of preparation that we spend preparing ourselves, preparing our children for college, that they have better gut instincts.
Bobbi Rebell:
And also, of course, judges, another important job. And intelligence analysts and HR professionals. Daniel, you're bursting our bubble here.
Daniel Crosby:
Yeah, but if you look at those things, there's a very common thread that runs through all of them, and it's humanity, right. So people who do have intuition, are mathematicians and physicists, who have seen a problem, they've familiarized themselves with it, and they can start to intuit.
Daniel Crosby:
Like, "Oh, I think this is where it's going," because math and physics and related hard sciences follow hard rules. Human beings, for better and worse, do not follow hard rules. And so the more there is a human element to the work you do, the less intuition counts.
Bobbi Rebell:
All right. Hot button topic today, passive investing. And some big proponents of it have come out, expressing real concern about the fact that passive investing, in the form of especially of index funds, is really getting to a level that is concerning.
Daniel Crosby:
So we know on the one hand, that over the last 30 years, passive investment vehicles have beaten their active counterparts about 85% of the time. I mean, a little bit more or less, depending on what sort of asset class you're looking at. But, I mean, that is like incredible, and to think that they've done it at a fraction of the cost is even more incredible. So that's sort of exhibit A.
Daniel Crosby:
But exhibit B, we have the real truth about financial markets, which is that, as soon as everyone thinks something is a good idea, it sort of ceases to be a good idea. And it's something that's referred to as the tragedy of the commons, right, and it comes back from ancient times, when there was like a common park or a common pasture.
Daniel Crosby:
And so, it's the best thing for all of the farmers to want to graze their cows on someone else's land, until all of the farmers decide to do that, and then there's no grass left. So as long as a minority of people are passive investors, which is the case today, passive investing makes a lot of sense.
Daniel Crosby:
But as everyone begins to latch onto this and as everyone beings to head in that direction, I think theoretically, you have to ask yourself the question, "Does it become sort of unmored by the fact that everyone's grazing their cows in the same place?"
Bobbi Rebell:
So tell us about where people can learn more about you, and your book, and your podcast, which we had not mentioned yet, and all the things.
Daniel Crosby:
I'm very active on LinkedIn, Daniel Crosby, PhD. I'm at Twitter, @DanielCrosby. And you can tune into the podcast, which is called Standard Deviations.
Bobbi Rebell:
Thank you so much.
Daniel Crosby:
My pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me.
Bobbi Rebell:
All right, my friends. Let's break this down. Financial Grownup tip number one, if you own it, own it. Dr. Crosby is sincerely uncomfortable in his house, but it doesn't make financial sense for him to move. I asked him if he had talked to the neighbors because it seemed to me, that he is assuming that all of his neighbors are the kind of people that live in really big, really fancy houses, unlike him and his family who's really more modest, but bought something that's just too fancy for the image he feels comfortable with.
Bobbi Rebell:
He hadn't talked to his neighbors. Maybe if he reaches out to them, make some friends, and sees the area as a family neighborhood, not a collection of just fancy houses with people more fancy than he is, he might be a little more comfortable. Or, maybe not. But in general, I think it's always good to humanize what's going on in a situation that makes you a little uncomfortable. People may not be what you perceive them to be.
Bobbi Rebell:
Financial Grownup tip number two, a little blast from the past housing crisis. You don't have to buy a big house or an expensive house just because the banker said, "You can afford it." Even if you cut their budget in half, as the Crosby's did, if you don't want to have that much house, don't. Besides, you can always add on an investment property with the extra cash and create a little passive income, right.
Bobbi Rebell:
Thanks to everyone for your continued support of the show. It really means a lot when you write a review, so please take a moment this holiday season for that. And be in touch on Instagram on bobbirebell1 and on Twitter @BobbiRebell, and you can always email us at hello@financialgrownup.com. And big thanks to Dr. Daniel Crosby for being so candid and for helping us all get one step closer to being Financial Grownups.
Bobbi Rebell:
Financial Grownup with Bobbi Rebell is edited and produced by Steve Stewart and is a BRK Media production.
